Ten years following the UK entered into a rushed public vote that split the nation and unleashed disorder, a advisory is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the same could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating disturbances for which nobody is ready.
That conveys the caution from two leading commentators from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a potentially contentious and seismic public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction swiftly," the commentator said. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our islands remains very unstable."
Book Publication Aims to Stir Debate
The team have examined the political, financial and cultural reasons for any constitutional change in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the issue with a tour of public talks that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles everybody, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a binary, vague proposition whose implications have not been spelled out because then you end up with an highly divided society where people who have lost are not reconciled to losing and the those successful don't know quite what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue such a time is looming, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the possibility, leaving it unclear whether or when there might be a national vote.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric for and against unification has obscured the shortage of substantive discussion, said McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the notion but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A great deal has gone on in academia but hardly any politicians or campaigners seek to involve themselves even with the essentials. To illustrate, what type of nation should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, neither author supports unification or the status quo. Each composes two articles that aim for impartiality in presenting the case for a unified Ireland and the argument against, assembling financial and social figures, historical precedents and structural examples.
Arguments encompass flags and symbols, duties, health services, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The objective is to inform and encourage dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there is still lacking a discussion," said the writer. "Debate implies an acceptance of the concept that there could be valid points on either side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens claim they favour unity but oppose increased taxation or implementing a alternative symbol to acknowledge unionists' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland should determine what the offer from pro-unification movements is beyond just declaring: 'We want a united Ireland and we welcome you'," said the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist believes a referendum in his lifetime is likely and that it could happen unexpectedly. "There might be just a mad or a ill-advised or a feckless secretary of state who states: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have reasonable, valid points, he said. "One side will prevail on this issue and somebody will eventually lose but each side has possesses something to acquire from the opposing positions."
Appeal for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster needed to join the debate, stated O’Toole. "This is about Britain. It's a British issue as much as it is an Irish matter."