Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the crisis sparked by the introduction of a new 28-article proposal for achieving ceasefire appeared – momentarily – to have been stabilised. A senior US official spoke of "significant advancement" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its response: a renewed assault of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Pattern of Peace Talks and Military Action
The succession of opposing developments captured the harsh reality of the outgoing year. By day, negotiation efforts are waged: optimistic declarations are released from different nations. Immense energy is expended on managing certain initiatives. By night, Moscow clearly shows the world that, for them, war remains the key method for achieving "settlement".
After-Dark Attacks
As military strikes developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's vulnerability was laid bare. Ukraine is capable of detecting projectile deployments from across the border, a capability enabled by up-to-date information. From observation points, defense planes that had been scrambled to intercept incoming cruise missiles roared overhead – modern combat jets supplied to Ukraine by Western partners.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons thundered: several firings targeted at a incoming threat. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, probably supplied through allied countries. Every launch shakes the surroundings, causing tremors. The moment of terror quickly gives way to sober acceptance: perhaps the approaching threat won't hit its mark this time, protecting urban areas from ruin and another blackout.
Ongoing Risks
Not long after, a large-caliber weapon opened up on a unmanned aircraft in the vicinity, part of a rapid response unit – most likely imported technology. Regrettably, the projectiles didn't strike the opposing UAV – it maintained course toward its destination.
Periodically, this continued until dawn. Kyiv faced the morning news: multiple fatalities, devastation and heating outages in multiple buildings as a result of the evening attack. As always, everyone still maintained normal activities – experiencing conflict. But those full day illustrated Ukraine's critical military reliance on external assistance – a dependence that neighboring countries are clearly incapable to fill in the short term.
Failed Diplomacy
The detailed framework from American leadership provoked deep reactions, controversy and serious worry – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after earlier high-level meetings and bilateral conferences.
Every new approach from American administration follows the identical sequence: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, succeeds in resisting. They manage the tension but never actually secure success. This pattern will, undoubtedly, endure.
Strategic Calculations
It is tempting to accuse specific actors of repeatedly advocating Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. Washington works based on a principle understood by seasoned negotiators: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have failed to defend militarily. The American government presumes that it is unrealistic to pressure the Kremlin to relinquish the land that it presently holds in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The issue is that while accepting these circumstances, Washington does minimal to discourage Russia, through diplomacy or military means, from assuming that the current condition will not change more in its benefit in the coming year.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, Russian leadership is certain that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its allies are nearing depletion. Their incentive to sign a deal that does not give them the maximum possible gain is almost completely absent. There may be many attempts to end hostilities, but they will persist as long as Russia's leader remains highly assured in the outcome.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still hold out, slowly losing lives and land but averting a entire defensive failure until situations evolve in its advantage.
Current Realities
Realistically, there are no real preconditions for a armistice. Now, personal considerations are becoming relevant: leadership ambitions to broker a ceasefire and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and Ukrainian leadership's double obstacles – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to unite the population around the national cause against any initiative Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their priority does not shift toward internal issues. And although their objective will now be considerably more difficult after current events, it remains highly unlikely that this will modify their basic position.
These opposing factors are driving the talks.
Conclusion and Outlook
It took a mere seven days to kill the 28 points of the latest plan. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by Washington, resistance by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with pacifying measures of diplomats, and finally, recent disclosures, all served their function.
While new initiatives based on old ideas are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter political attacks from Washington that are based on Russian demands and demonstrate certain reluctance to modify developments, if they maintain solidarity and improve their protective measures at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to defend against evening bombardments will, for the coming months, primarily depend on continued Western support.